By Sam Kutos/ Sani Ma’azu
May 3, 2025
Less than two years after Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, widely lauded for ushering in an era of partisan diversity, opposition parties appear to be crumbling under a wave of defections, raising serious concerns over the future of democratic competition in the country.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which emerged with the majority in both chambers of the 10th National Assembly, has since consolidated its hold through high-profile defections from key opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and others.
Analysts say the gains made by smaller parties during the last electoral cycle are being systematically eroded as lawmakers, governors, and influential political actors abandon their platforms, mostly for the APC. The shift, critics argue, is not necessarily ideological but driven by political survival, access to federal resources, and coercive pressure.
In recent weeks, Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and former PDP vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa, defected to the APC, while Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno openly endorsed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid, fuelling speculations of an impending crossover. Similar moves are reportedly underway in other PDP-governed states.
The growing trend has prompted warnings from civil society groups, including the Group of Democrats, which described the mass defections as a “calculated and systematic” effort by the Tinubu administration to reduce Nigeria to a one-party state.
“The pattern is disturbingly clear: an invitation by the EFCC for questioning on financial impropriety is swiftly followed by political capitulation,” the group said in a strongly worded statement. “This weaponisation of state institutions for partisan gain corrodes public trust and undermines the integrity of our democracy.”
The presidency, however, rejected the allegations. Presidential aide on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, described the critics as “partisan human rights crusaders” and “emergency defenders of democracy.”
He said, “Accusations that the administration is moving towards authoritarianism are baseless and exaggerated. Nigerians migrating to the APC are doing so out of free will based on the belief that the reforms being executed are in the interest of Nigerians and the unborn generation.”
While the APC maintains that its growing ranks reflect public endorsement of its governance, political observers warn that a weakened opposition poses grave risks to democratic accountability. Lawyer and public affairs analyst, Ikoro N. Ikoro, cautioned that the collapse of opposition structures could lead to development being tied solely to political loyalty.
“If we run a system that says if you are not in the APC, then development cannot come to your area, then that is clearly unconstitutional,” he said.
Despite these developments, some stakeholders remain optimistic. Leader of the Labour Party caucus in the House of Representatives, Afam Ogene, said there is an ongoing effort to push constitutional reforms that could curtail opportunistic defections.
“What we’ll probably do is to firm up the laws,” he said. “Even if we don’t get it right now, in the coming years, I am sure that some more victories will be won and democracy will keep thriving.”
At the start of the 10th Assembly in June 2023, APC held 57 Senate seats, followed by the PDP with 29, LP with 6, NNPP and SDP with 2 each, and APGA and YPP with 1 each. In the House, APC had 162 seats, PDP 102, LP 34, NNPP 18, APGA 4, ADC and SDP 2 each, and YPP 1. Those numbers have since changed, with APC now the biggest beneficiary of the defections.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has yet to deregister any party under the current administration, unlike in previous cycles when it moved against parties that failed to make electoral impact. However, political analysts argue that the current consolidation of power, though not formally enforced, could result in a de facto one-party state.
They warn that unless Nigeria’s opposition parties strengthen internal cohesion and rebuild their grassroots structures, the country may slip into a political environment where dissent is muted and governance lacks robust scrutiny.
As the 2027 general elections draw closer, Nigeria’s democratic future may well depend on whether it can preserve the pluralism that defined the promise of 2023—or allow history to repeat itself.
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